Election for Real Money

Tradesports is trading (for real money) in options contracts on sports, politics, ets.

A $100 paying contract that expires on election is trading at this moment as follows:
Bush $57.1
Kerry $43.2

There are also individual trades betting on State election wins. The following electoral conclusion comes via WSJ Best of the Web based on Friday's trades. Tradesports contract prices for individual states suggest a close race. Most states are solidly in the column of one candidate or the other, with Bush contracts selling for under $20 or over $80. Here are the swing states, with the prices for Bush contracts:
Michigan: $20.10
Pennsylvania: $33
New Mexico: $36.50
Minnesota $37.40
New Hampshire: $40
Iowa: $51
Wisconsin: $54.10
Ohio: $58.10
Florida: $64
Nevada: $77
(Note that Florida is solidly betting Bush, Ohio leaning Bush, but people are not willing to bet on Bush in Michigan, New Hampshire or even Pennsylvania) If we assume each candidate carries all states where his advantage as measured by these prices is more than $10, we come up with this electoral map: Kerry picks up one Bush state from 2000 (New Hampshire, with 4 electoral votes). Bush has a slight advantage in all the three closest states--Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin--of which he won only Ohio in 2000. If the other 47 states all follow Tradesports' expectations, Bush wins if he carries either Ohio or both Iowa and Wisconsin. Kerry needs Ohio along with either Iowa or Wisconsin.

This explains why the Terminator AKA Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger plans a high-profile trip to the presidential battleground state of Ohio on the weekend before the Nov. 2 election. In Ohio Schwarzenegger has "a following thanks to his annual Columbus-based Arnold Classic bodybuilding competition."